The World Has Just 8 Yrs To Fight Global Warming

- Nitin Sethi

The world cannot remain a fossil fool anymore, oblivious of the environmental destruction wrought as it guzzles fuels like coal and oil.

The world has just eight years to act and bring down the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere if the rising global temperatures are be contained between 2-2.4 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, a hard-hitting report of the UN’s apex body on climate change released on Friday said.

All countries, including India, will have to take drastic steps to shift from fossil fuels like coal and oil, which emit global warming gases upon burning, in order to avert a global crisis, the report said with a firmness and certainty that the experts of more than 100 countries have never asserted before.

It has warned that any delay in action would lead to the temperatures rising alarmingly.

Nailing all quibbles on climate change from sceptics’ chambers, the report warned that emissions of heat-trapping gases had increased alarmingly by 70 per cent between 1970-2004, with levels of carbon dioxide increasing by 80 per cent over the same period.

In an ominous prediction, it noted that if the world continues to burn fossil fuels along current lines, then the dangerous emissions would rise by 90 per cent by 2030.

The recommendations mark repudiation of arguments of both developing and developed countries.

Countering the argument of the developing countries, like India and China, that reducing emissions would hit their economies, the report says that at worst, the global GDP would be blunted by about 3 per cent by 2030 if it undertakes these emission cuts.

It, however, admits that some countries will bear the brunt more than others.

On the other hand, developed countries have also been bluntly told that they would have to change their lifestyles and alter consumption patterns. These countries, with a mere 20 per cent of the world’s population, account for 50 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions. The message for them is that mere adoption of technologies won’t do.

Source: Times of India

Global Warming or Global Cooling?

- SWAMINOMICS/SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR

Almost as soon as the Kyoto Protocol on global warming came into effect on February 15, Kashmir suffered the highest snowfall in three decades with over 150 killed, and Mumbai recorded the lowest temperature in 40 years. Had temperatures been the highest for decades, newspapers would have declared this was proof of global warming. But whenever temperatures drop, the press keeps quiet.
Things were different in 1940-70, when there was global cooling. Every cold winter then was hailed as proof of a coming new Ice Age. But the moment cooling was replaced by warming, a new disaster in the opposite direction was proclaimed.
A recent Washington Post article gave this scientist's quote from 1972. "We simply cannot afford to gamble. We cannot risk inaction. The scientists who disagree are acting irresponsibly. The indications that our climate can soon change for the worse are too strong to be reasonably ignored." The warning was not about global warming (which was not happening): it was about global cooling!
In the media, disaster is news, and its absence is not. This principle has been exploited so skillfully by ecological scare-mongers that it is now regarded as politically incorrect, even unscientific, to denounce global warming hysteria as unproven speculation.
Meteorologists are a standing joke for getting predictions wrong even a few days ahead. The same jokers are being taken seriously when they use computer models to predict the weather 100 years hence.
The models have not been tested for reliability over 100 years, or even 20 years. Different models yield variations in warming of 400%, which means they are statistically meaningless.
Wassily Leontief, Nobel prize winner for modeling, said this about the limits of models. "We move from more or less plausible but really arbitrary assumptions, to elegantly demonstrated but irrelevant conclusions." Exactly. Assume continued warming as in the last three decades, and you get a warming disaster. Assume more episodes of global cooling, and you get a cooling disaster.
In his latest best seller State of Fear, Michael Crichton does a devastating expose of the way ecological groups have tweaked data and facts to create mass hysteria. He points out that we know astonishingly little about the environment. All sides make exaggerated claims.
We know that atmospheric carbon is increasing. We are also in the midst of a natural warming trend that started in 1850 at the end of what is called the Little Ice Age. It is scientifically impossible to prove whether the subsequent warming is natural or man-made.
Greens say, rightly, that the best scientific assessment today is that global warming is occurring. Yet never in history have scientists accurately predicted what will happen 100 years later. A century ago no scientists predicted the internet, microwave ovens, TV, nuclear explosions or antibiotics. It is impossible, even stupid, to predict the distant future.
That scientific truth is rarely mentioned. Why? Because the global warming movement has now become a multi-billion dollar enterprise with thousands of jobs and millions in funding for NGOs and think-tanks, top jobs and prizes for scientists, and huge media coverage for predictions of disaster.
The vested interests in the global warming theory are now as strong, rich and politically influential as the biggest multinationals. It is no co-incidence, says Crichton, that so many scientists sceptical of global warming are retired professors: they have no need to chase research grants and chairs.
I have long been an agnostic on global warming: the evidence is ambiguous. But I almost became a convert when Greenpeace publicised photos showing the disastrously rapid retreat of the Upsala Glacier in Argentina. How disastrous, I thought, if this was the coming fate of all glaciers.
Then last Christmas, I went on vacation to Lake Argentina. The Upsala glacier and six other glaciers descend from the South Andean icefield into the lake. I was astounded to discover that while the Upsala glacier had retreated rapidly, the other glaciers showed little movement, and one had advanced across the lake into the Magellan peninsula. If in the same area some glaciers advance and others retreat, the cause is clearly not global warming but local micro-conditions.
Yet the Greenpeace photos gave the impression that glaciers in general were in rapid retreat. It was a con job, a dishonest effort to mislead. From the same icefield, another major glacier spilling into Chile has grown 60% in volume.
Greenpeace and other ecological groups have well-intentioned people with high ideals. But as crusaders they want to win by any means, honest or not. I do not like being taken for a ride, by idealists or anyone else.
We need impartial research, funded neither by MNCs, governmental groups or NGOs with private agendas. And the media needs to stop highlighting disaster scares and ignoring exposes of the scares.

Source: Times of India

Antinomies of democracy

- CD BHATTA

The year 2006 marks the watershed in Nepali politics. People's movement has brought some sort of relief to the public and hope for a new politics - which was viewed as a key source of friendship in which moral excellence could be acquired and displayed (Aristotelian notion). It was expected that reality of power would not be the defining reality of political discourse. One year down the road however, a great deal of fear is lurking partly due to the fact that much admired loktantra - by the people is becoming more and more oligarchic, that is, of the few and for the few; society is entering into the state of nature and politics is shifting towards the place of contestation (containment of power) as in the Machiavellian term. The social frontiers of the state are changing day by day but the persisting tension and collaboration between political society and civil society has not been able to adjust with this changing pace. This is because the tensions and collaborations are driven by the dynamics of power politics rather than broader cause of political and social stability in the country.

Let me begin with current talk on the unification of professional political forces of different ideologies that is, communists, democrats and (far) rightists. The logic behind unification, being floated by the respective political party, is based on mere rhetoric of egalitarian society with republican system of governance in place. And political parties are proposing their own prescriptions. However, going by the run-down history of political events down the road of past twelve months - it looks that 'conditions' that could provide political stability in the country are still missing. It is because current political actors, like in the past, have failed to accommodate all societal forces into the institutional life of the state. Even if political parties are united, it is not going to make much difference in polity because the new system of governance is already forming its own neo-patrimonial classes on top of old classes.

Nepali state is dictated by the Hobbesian nature of element(s). For example, three factors that have immensely dominated Nepali state affairs after Jana Andolan-2 are eight political parties, civil society and mushrooming number of 'interest groups'. These element(s), in one way or the other, are engaged in preserving their political, social, economic, and to some extent, even personal interests (power seekers) at this historic juncture of political turn-over. What has been certainly missing from the current political scene are citizens (those who cannot or are not in a position to organize on their own) who are nowhere to be mentioned.

The embedded elitism in every sector of governance and mere ranting of loktantrik ganatantra (not exhibited in practice) by political parties and the civil society indicate that regime change came about through 'elite settlement' among political parties. Civil society though has played a crucial role for regime change but failed to instil civic values. The convergence between 'old class' and 'new class' of political leaders is motivated by the vested interests as against the common interests. The unstable and mushrooming networks of opposition, the lack of connections between civil society and citizenry at large and absence of nationalist agenda from the political discourse is resulting in the resignation of mass population from elite politics. And this certainly does not herald prosperous future for the country.

The expansion of political society and elite shift of civil society members to political society have corroded the very notion of civil society. In fact state and citizens have been colonised by the political and (un)civil society. The shift of civil society organisations and colonisation of public sphere by political society especially after Jana Andalon 2 (like in the earlier Andolans) is not considered normal pattern of democratic politics. It is rather somewhat abnormal condition and implies thin quality of state of democracy and civil society.

This shift of civil society from civic sphere to political sphere, mere expansion of political society and the rise of various interest groups are maintaining "revolutionary situation" in the country. The reason behind this phenomenon is that professional political class (political entrepreneurs) have grossly ignored the genuine interest of citizens. The political class is simply treating Nepali state as their personal enterprises. It appears that ownership of the state is shifting towards 'eight political parties' and the Kathmandu centred civil society members. Perhaps this could be the reason, among others, why citizens are forming their own groups and exerting pressure against the state on different themes (citizens against the state). Our political leaders have no dearth to understand this broader public uprising. In contrast, they have virtually closed channels of communication with groups who are outside the purview of parties and parliaments. The hijacking of public sphere by political society, urban middle class elites, official civil society and marginalization of peripheral civil society organizations (civic feudalism) also begs some fundamental questions on state ownership (the popular sovereignty for that matter).

The fundamental problem, in this regard, primarily stem due to (1) politicisation and elite shift of civil sphere into the political sphere and vice versa, (2) elite domination in civil society and missing link between members and leaders in civil society organisations and civil society and citizen and (3) patron-client relationship between civil society, political society and their masters (donors and foreign powers). These factors, indeed, are contributing towards incivility and civic euphoria of 2006 is slowly evaporating.

Summing up, prevalence of patron-client links between political society and civil society do not guarantee impartiality; the parties in power, collaborating with their client in civil society (the interest groups) cannot guarantee comprehensive state and civil society relationship that can promote democracy in the country. The existing relationship between political parties and interest group leadership is benefiting only the political parties and those elite with the suitable qualifications to shift into politics. This is how politically relevant social capital and cultural capital is transforming into political capital.

Nepal is now in the throes of a major turbulence and challenges that lie ahead of Nepali politics are multiple and immense. Changes are already taking place in different spheres of society but Nepali state is not prepared to deal with these changes. The wide-ranging upsurge of marginalised and oppressed strata of society has forced us to think beyond formal politics and tap the deeper dimensions of reality. Nepali state is losing internal sovereignty to varied interests groups mainly due to anachronistic political practice which is driven by the Machiavellian notion that 'political power' should not be shared? if the tension and collaboration between political society, civil society and others societal actors are tied up merely to maintain status quo or secure their own positions how can we expect to have a new Nepal? Hence imagination of a new Nepal under the existing scenario is just idealistic, not materialistic.

Source: Kathmandu Post

‘Education is too specialised today’

Excerpts from an interview with eminent film maker and theatre personality, MS Sathyu. Known for Garam Hawa and other films, Sathyu never completed his graduation, opting instead to join the world of filmmaking. He shared his views with M. Radhika.

What were your dreams and aspirations as a student?

Whatever I wanted to become, I have more or less become. I wanted to become a filmmaker. And I wanted to do theatre, which I still do. True, there is always the feeling that I could have done much more.

Did your education help you reach those goals? Did it hamper your achievements considering you gave up formal education to pursue filmmaking?

Education was not as specialised as it has become today. I could not specialise in anything. We had a curriculum, had to go through the syllabus. Then you went to college and opted for either Science or Arts. My father did not want me to pursue an insecure profession like filmmaking, so I opted for a least-chosen BSc. combination — Chemistry, Botany and Geology. Two years on, it was pointless for me. By then my interest in arts was more rooted. I went to Bombay to start work in 1952.

Was there anything that you wanted to change in the education system then?

I did not want to change anything, never gave any thought to it. It was a system that existed already. Besides, there were only a few specialised places that taught what I wanted. Bangalore’s Jayachamarajendra Polytechnic was the only institution that taught sound recording. Govind Nihalani, Murthy, Sathyan — they all came from there.

Were you satisfied with the education your children received? Was there any aspect you would have liked to change?

Seema Sathyu is a painter by profession. She did her MFA in Baroda and MA in painting at Jamia Millia Islamia, Delhi. Shaili is a qualified teacher. She dropped out of her architecture course to pursue education. They opted for whatever they wanted. I did not come in their way. My youngest daughter also pursued theatre. She runs the Indian People’s Theatre Association, India’s oldest theatre group.

What are your aspirations for India’s educational system today?

Education has become more of a business proposition; more for the elite and less for the general masses. There are no community schools. No concept of belonging to an area and going to the school in the neighbourhood. Our country’s education policy is wrong. We have followed what the British left behind. The economic divide is glaring. Yet we have done quite a bit — states like Kerala have achieved 100 percent literacy.

Do you subscribe to the concept of common schools for all children?

I am all for common schools. In cities, children have choices but in villages all classes of people go to the same school because there is no alternative available. In cities there is more disparity. More children are educated in cities than in villages.

May 05, 2007

Source: Tehelka

सङ्घीय धरातल र दल

Girija Prasad Koirala and Prachanda signing Comprehensive Peace Agreement

- टुकबहादुर थापामगर

जनआन्दोलन-२ ले र्सार्वभौमसत्ता नेपाली जनतामा हस्तान्तरण गरे पनि देश एकात्मक शैलीबाट नै अगाडि बढिरहेको भान हुन्छ । अन्तरमि संविधान घोषणा भएको ३५ दिनभित्र संशोधन हुनु र संशोधित संविधानले पनि सङ्घीय व्यवस्थाका बारेमा स्पष्ट पार्न नसक्नुले यसलाई पुष्टि गर्छ । ऐतिहासिक जनआन्दोलन-२ लाई २००७ र ०४६ सालको भन्दा निकै फरक ढङ्गले लिनर्ुपर्दछ । ००७ सालको आन्दोलन एक सय चारवर्षो निरङ्कुश राणा शासनको अन्त्य र ०४६ सालको जनआन्दोलनको लक्ष्य ३० वर्षो निरङ्कुश पञ्चायती व्यवस्थाको अन्त्य गरेर प्रजातन्त्रको स्  थापना गर्नु थियो । तर, ०६३ सालको जनआन्दोलनको लक्ष्य दर्ुइ सय ३८ वर्षम्मको राजतन्त्रलाई समाप्त गर्दै लोकतान्त्रिक पद्धतिमार्फ देशको राजनीतिक, आर्थिक, सामाजिक र सांस्कृतिक रूपान्तरण गरेर राज्यको पुनःसंरचना गर्नु रहेको थियो । त्यसैगरी यसपटकको जनआन्दोलनको लक्ष्य १० वर्षो माओवादी 'जनयुद्ध' समाप्त गरी राज्यलाई सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस् थामा लगेर केन्द्रीकृत राज्य व्यवस्थाको अन्त्य गर्नु पनि हो ।

देशलाई जातीय, क्षेत्रीय वा सांस्कृतिक के आधारमा सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्थामा लैजाने भन्ने मुद्दा अहिले एउटा प्रमुख चुनौती बनेको छ । जातीय र क्षेत्रीय आधारबाट सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्था बनाउनर्ुपर्दछ भन्ने प्रस् ताव चर्को स्वरले उठेको छ । सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्थाको आधारबारे कुरा गर्दा जातीय, क्षेत्रीय र स्ाांस्कृतिक वा अन्य विकल्पलाई माने पनि अहिलेको आवश्यकता भनेको सङ्घीय व्यवस्थाद्वारा जातीय आधारमा समानुपातिक राज्य संयन्त्रमा समान सहभागी हुन पाउनर्ुपर्दछ भन्ने नै हो । किनभने, दर्ुइ सय ३८ वर्षम्म एउटै जाति र वर्गले केन्द्रीकृत रूपबाट शासन गर्दै आइरहेको छ । यस्तो शासन व्यवस्थाको अन्त्य गरी देशलाई सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्थामा नलगी सुखै छैन । नेपालको यथार्थ भू-राजनीतिक धरातलको पहिलो समस्या भनेकै जातीय असमानताबाट निर्माण भएकोे सामाजिक बनोट नै हो । क्षेत्रीय, लैङ्गिक र वर्गीय रूपबाट निर्माण भएको सामाजिक संरचना अर्को समस्या हो ।

अहिले नेपाली जनताको मुख्य चाहना भनेको शक्ति र साधनस्रोतको व्यापक बा“डफा“ट गरी सबै तहमा जातीय, क्षेत्रीय र अन्य प्रकारले पछाडि परेका समुदायको समान सहभागिता हुनर्ुपर्दछ भन्ने हो । यदि र्सार्वभौमसत्ता जनतामा निहित छ भने शक्तिको बा“डफा“ट पनि त्यसै अनुरूप हुनर्ुपर्दछ । यसका लागि देश सङ्घीय व्यवस्थामा जानुबाहेक विकल्प छैन । एकातिर ठूला राजनीतिक दलहरू र्सार्वभौभसत्ता जनतामा निहित हुनर्ुपर्दछ भनेर जनताको र्समर्थन लिई आफू लोकप्रिय हुन खोज्छन् । र, अर्कातिर उनीहरूको भनाइ व्यवहारमा लागू नहुनुले दलहरूको शासन गर्ने शैली पनि एकात्मक, निरङ्कुश र सामन्ती खालको देखिन्छ । ठूला राजनीतिक दल नेपाली काङ्ग्रेस र नेकपा -एमाले) सङ्घीय व्यवस्थाका बारेमा स् पष्ट छैनन् । अझ कस्तो र के आधारमा सङ्घीय व्यवस्था कायम गर्ने भन्ने त धेरै टाढाको विषय हो । उनीहरूबाट सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस् थाको खाका बाहिर आउन नसक्नुको मूल कारण हो- उनीहरू सुविधाभोगी छन्, बढीभन्दा बढी सम्पत्ति आर्जन गर्ने चाहना राख्छन् र अर्को आफूस“ग भएको सत्ताको शक्ति हस्तान्तरण गर्न चाह“दैनन् ।

देशलाई माओवादीहरूले भनेजस्तो सङ्घीय व्यवस्थामा लैजाने हो भने पनि नेपालको जातीय, क्षेत्रीय र सांस्कृतिक विविधतामा कुनै परविर्तन आउ“दैन । किनभने, हरेक जिल्ला वा क्षेत्रमा बसोवास गर्ने विभिन्न जातजातिहरूमा जातीय र सांस्कृतिक विविधता छ । उदाहरणका लागि माओवादीले विभाजन गरे अनुुसार मगरात क्षेत्रलाई आधार मान्दा यहा“ विभिन्न जातजातिको बसोवास छ । यहा“ मुख्य बसोवास भनेको मगर, क्षेत्री, बाहुन र दलितको छ । यस क्षेत्रमा मगरको जनसङ्ख्या ३५।७ प्रतिशत छ भने बाहुन, क्षेत्री र ठकुरीको ५१.७ प्रतिशत छ । दलितको १२.४ प्रतिशत रहेको छ । यसका साथसाथै अन्य जातिको पनि उपस्थिति छ । पर्ूण्ा बहुमत कुनै जातिको छैन । सेती-महाकालीमा क्षेत्रीको बहुमत भए पनि अन्य जातिको पनि उपस्थिति रहेको छ । यस क्षेत्रमा क्षेत्री, बाहुन र ठकुरी ८५.७ र दलित १४.२ प्रतिशतको हाराहारीमा छन् । त्यस्तै, मधेशलाई हर्ेर्ने हो भने पनि मधेशीहरूको २६.२ प्रतिशत, मधेशी जनजातिको १७.१ प्रतिशत, पहाडे बाहुन र क्षेत्रीको २६.९ प्रतिशत, पहाडे जनजातिको ७.८ प्रतिशत, मधेशी दलितको २.६ र मुस्लिमको १९.१ प्रतिशत जनसङ्ख्या छ । फरक यति हो कि कुनै क्षेत्रमा कुनै जातिको बहुमत अवश्य छ तर पर्ूण्ा बहुमत भने सेती-महाकालीमा बाहेक अन्यमा कुनै जातिको छैन ।

जो केन्द्रीकृत शासन व्यवस्था कायम रहोस् भन्ने चाहन्छन्, तिनीहरूले विश्वको सङ्घीय राज्यको उदाहरण दिएर देश टुक्रिएको तर्क राखे पनि यहा“को यथार्थ राजनीतिक धरातल भनेकोे सङ्घीय राज्यद्वारा जातीय, क्षेत्रीय र लैङ्गिक असमानताको अन्त्य गर्नु हो । बीपी कोइरालाको प्रजातान्त्रिक समाजवाद होस् वा मार्क्सवादी समाजवाद वा माओको साम्यवाद नै किन नहोस्, सबैको एउटै उद्देश्य भनेको समतामूलक समाजको निर्माण गर्नु हो । जातीय र क्षेत्रीयताको मुद्दा उठ्नुका पछाडि राज्यले वषौर्ंवर्षम्म जातीय र क्षेत्रीय असमानताको व्यवहार गरेकाले नै हो । विविध जातजाति र विविध भौगोलिक क्षेत्र भएको ठाउ“मा जाति र क्षेत्रका मुद्दा उठ्नुलाई स् वाभाविक मान्नर्ुपर्दछ ।

देशलाई सङ्घीय व्यवस्थामा लैजानर्ुपर्दछ भन्ने विषयमा माओवादी अन्य दलभन्दा केही अगाडिजस्तो देखिन्छ । तर, व्यवहारमा उसलाई जा“च्न बा“की नै छ । कम्तीमा पनि माओवादीले सङ्घीय राज्यको खाका कोरेको छ र बहसको विषय बनाएको छ । तर, यसै आधारमा काङ्ग्रेस र एमालेका नेताहरू सङ्घीय राज्यको पक्षमा छैनन् भन्ने निष्कर्षनिकाल्नु भने गलत हुनेछ ।र्
भर्खरै संशोधित अन्तरमि संविधानमा पनि सङ्घीय राज्यको संरचना कस्तो हुने भन्नेबारेमा आठ दल स्पष्ट नहुनुले अझै पनि तिनीहरू सङ्घीय राज्य खडा गर्नेबारे स्पष्ट छैनन् कि भन्ने शङ्का जन्मिएको छ । तर्सथ, यस्तो शङ्का मेटाउनका लागि आठ दलले संविधानसभाको चुनाव अगाडि नै सङ्घीय राज्यको खाका कोर्नुपर्दछ । यस्तो खाका कोर्दा पारस्परकि सम्बन्धमा खलल नपर्ने खालको हुनर्ुपर्दछ । केन्द्रीकृत राज्यलाई सङ्घीय राज्यमा ढाल्दा जसरी एकात्मक राज्यमा अहिलेसम्म विभिन्न जातजातिबीच सद्भाव र समन्वय कायम रहिरह्यो, त्यसरी नै सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्थामा पनि रहनर्ुपर्दछ । एकात्मक राज्य व्यवस्थामा असमानताको खाडल धेरै थियो भने सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्थामा त्यो खाडल हटेर जानेछ । राजतन्त्रको अन्त्यस“गै केन्द्रीकृत राज्यको अन्त्य हुनेछ र पछाडि पारएिका समुदायको राज्यसत्तादेखि अन्य तहमा सहज पह“ुच हुनेछ । शक्ति र साधनस्रोतको समानुपातिक बा“डफा“ट हुनेछ ।

जातीय, क्षेत्रीय, लैङ्गिक र वर्गीय विविधताको न्यूनतम प्रतिविम्ब झल्किने गरी राज्यसंरचनाको व्यवस्था नगरनिाले अहिलेसम्म नेपाली राज्य पहाडे मूलका बाहुन, क्षेत्री र ठकुरी आदिको मात्र प्रतिनिधिमूलक संस् थाजस्तो बन्न पुगेको छ । राज्यको विविधता जसरी निर्माण भएको छ, त्यस् तै प्रकारको सुहाउ“दो शासन व्यवस् था अपनाउनुपर्ने अहिलेको आवश्यकता हो । त्यो भनेको सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्थाबाट मात्र सम्भव छ । अहिलेको एकात्मक राज्य व्यवस्  थामा जसरी जातीय, क्षेत्रीय र सांस्कृतिक विविधता छ, त्यसरी नै देशलाई सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस् थामा रूपान्तरण गरेपछि पनि यी विविधताबाट सङ्घीय राज्य टाढा हुने छैन भन्ने विश्वास दिलाउनु जरुरी छ । नेपालको यथार्थ भू-राजनीतिक धरातल भनेको यही विविधता नै हो । मुलुकलाई सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्थामा लैजा“दा राजनीतिक दलले देशको जातीय, क्षेत्रीय र लैङ्गिक विविधतालाई भुल्नु हु“दैन । यी पक्षहरूलाई ध्यान दिइएन भने सङ्घीय राज्य व्यवस्था नाम मात्रको हुनेछ ।

(थापामगर प्राज्ञिक अनुसन्धानमा क्रियाशील छन्)

सोर्स: नेपाल

The Mirror of Change: This is Who We are Becoming

The Internet in its user-driven avatar is fundamentally altering the way we understand society, our relationships, ourselves and the way we share with each other, says Dina Mehta.

It is myopic for us to view online relationships as the ‘other’ woman or man in our lives. Youth clearly does not. For them, these are an extension of their real world — they don’t differentiate between their online lives and their offline ones.
Online life has a whole meaning of its own, with its own rites of passage and social norms. Even a hard reality like death is part of it: real people with real feelings will often mourn online for those they haven’t met physically, but have been emotionally intimate with — as happened with Minal Panchal, tragically gunned down at Virginia Tech, her murder later mourned in an Orkut community. Such memorialisations illuminate a world many people don’t know exists, a new world whose inhabitants form intense bonds distinct from those they form with their face-to-face friends. Outsiders, and even insiders, don’t yet know quite how to describe those bonds or deal with what happens when a crisis leads to the intersection of virtual and real worlds.
Social media researcher Danah Boyd has done extensive research on youth in mediated public spaces such as MySpace and Friendster. She talks of four properties that fundamentally separate unmediated publics from networked ones:» Persistence: Unlike the ephemeral quality of speech in unmediated publics, networked communications are recorded for posterity. This enables asynchronous communication but it also extends the period of existence of any speech act.» Searchability: Because expressions are recorded and identity is established through text, search and discovery tools help people find like minds. While people cannot currently acquire the geographical coordinates of any person in unmediated spaces, finding one’s digital body online is just a matter of keystrokes.» Replicability: Hearsay can be deflected as misinterpretation, but networked public expressions can be copied verbatim such that there is no way to distinguish the “original” from the “copy.”» Invisible audiences: It is virtually impossible to ascertain the number of people who might run across our expressions in networked publics. This is further complicated by the other three properties, since our expression may be heard at a different time and place from when and where we originally spoke.
In a recent talk she gave at Etech2007, Danah spoke of how youth are coping with invisible audiences and the breaking down of walls as they go online:
“In mediated public spaces, there’s no way to accurately gauge who is present or who will be present as the conversation spirals along.
“This has dramatic consequences because it means that the underlying architecture of life has changed. Things spread far greater than we ever would’ve imagined... This is quite different from the society that you and I were used to growing up. We were used to having walls. We assumed that the norms were set by the environment and that you behaved differently in a synagogue than in a pub and that was a-ok. Context was key but context depends on there being walls. Online, there are no walls. The walls have come crumbling down. You can cross through spaces with the click of a few keystrokes and it’s impossible to know what speech will spread where. The moment a conversation spreads, it changes contexts. How do you train a generation to speak to all people across all space and all time?...“Most people go with the ostrich solution. If you can’t see it, it doesn’t exist, right? If you don’t see the strangers staring at your virtual existence, they don’t exist, right? The other proposed solution is being a Luddite — avoiding all technology. Either way, we’re talking avoidance. But avoidance doesn’t ever work.
“The rules of privacy are fundamentally changing. For the first time, an entire generation is forced to deal and, for the most part, they are dealing. It’s not pretty and there are plenty of hiccups, but they’re doing a lot better than us old folk. Unfortunately, many of the above-25 are upset with the things that they’re doing to learn how to navigate this world with no walls.
“Personally, I think that we need to look to them to see what they’re doing and try learning from it. They’re growing up with this shifting architecture. You grew up with Andy Warhol’s fifteen minutes of fame; they’re growing up with being famous amongst fifteen. They’re collecting friends as a way of demarcating audience in a world without meaningful signals about who’s watching. If you’re not in their list of friends or aren’t like the people in their list of friends, you are not the intended audience.”
For those completely immersed in virtual worlds such as Second Life, the seduction of intimacy combined with anonymity does not mean they do not share the joys and sorrows of their real worlds. My bet is that they do. “Pet”, a very close friend and a colleague who worked with a team of online volunteers when the tsunami struck in December 2004, got me looking at Second Life with new eyes. He had been feeling trapped in his body for a long time, and when he got onto Second Life, it helped him become more comfortable with his feelings that he was a woman trapped in a man’s body. The beauty is that Second Life was a tool for “Pet” to figure out who she really is and how to work it out for real. Today, she has friends not only in Second Life, but also in her physical world with whom she can be herself. “Pet” has shared so much of her period of transition and angst with me, that I feel I know her intimately. Being a geek, she also helps me with my websites. I trust her as she trusts me. I know she is very real — there is nothing ‘virtual’ about her, even though I have never met her.
While I may never have seen or met “Pet”, there is depth in our friendship, and solidity. I know, for some people, that is hard to accept. I’m often asked questions like, how can you feel connected to someone you’ve never met? How can you trust someone you’ve never seen? These concerns are understandable given the newness of this medium and the flow that determines these sorts of relationships. Oh there are dangers too — the pretence borne out of anonymity, the addictions, the spam and scams, the paedophiles, the pornography. And still, when I meet up with blog buddies all over the world, how can I explain the amazing level of comfort I feel!
I single out blogs here as throwing up a whole different social system than do virtual worlds and social networking sites. Detractors say, online you can be whoever you want to be and nobody cares. That may be correct, yet, if you try and fake things too hard, you most always are found out, and can be verbally beaten. My belief is that people tend to act more like themselves online than they like to admit. It is much more difficult to hide away who you are when you are blogging. I’ve found myself revealing things on my blog about myself that I would find difficult to talk about face-to-face. Ugly things too.
And yet, I found myself trusting myself as I began trusting people I met through this medium. There is a fine line between the public, private and secret self, and the boundaries blur sometimes. At others there is a conscious effort to keep them apart. In a physical world, our lives are compartmentalised, you have different sets of friends for different needs, and meet in different physical spaces as a result. My blog is one space where I connect with friends, potential clients, strangers, acquaintances, even spammers and trolls. It is entirely up to me what I want to share of me and when, at my blog. And, I have found, the more I share, the more others do. It’s just an extension of basic human needs for connection and community.
For me, the online world is simply a part of my world. It is not discreet from my ‘real life’, it is not an underground life, it is part of my everyday existence. I started using social networking sites and blogs in 2003 when I got broadband and discovered the immense benefits of the sociality that the Internet offers. The most fulfiling change it has brought into my life is that now, I control my own environment. My blog has become my social network today. Through the simple act of voicing opinions and thoughts, I feel liberated to speak out loud and discover voices within me. Through the magical connections I have made, I can ‘select’ to surround myself with people who stimulate me in so many ways, and fill my space, even if they live thousands of miles away. Earlier, my social interactions were more ‘prescribed’, governed by familial ties and restricted to a set of habitual relationships. Today I can connect with people all over the world, select my friends and community - and that is so utterly powerful. I truly feel that I don’t just live in India, that I have family all over the world.
This brings with it many problems, perhaps a little unique to India, where however ‘liberated’ we may seem, there are clear do’s and don’ts in our relationships and traditional structures rooted in power imbalances. The online world is toppling and threatening many of our traditional structures, giving open voice and power to many who hitherto had none. It is a world that is not hierarchical, one that encourages an even playing field for free speech and debate no matter what gender or age or race or religion you belong to; it does not have many pre-ordained rules and prescriptions; it is one where we need to learn to respect personal space, and to embrace team play that can be so rewarding.
We need to learn how to better integrate this online world with our physical worlds, as the youth are doing so naturally. There’s been enough written about the disillusionment and the fracturing of real-life relationships as a result of baring your identity online. There is both beauty and ugliness, but it is no different from our physical world. Those who advocate censorship as a knee-jerk response to the ugliness are in denial of the reality of this space.

Mehta is a market research analyst

Source: Her Blog

आजको प्रमुख कार्यभार

- प्रदीप गिरी


नेपालमा राज्यसत्ता पुनःसंरचनाको माग उठिरहेछ । बहस भइरहेछ । यस्तो माग र बहसलाई अघि बढाउनु आवश्यक छ । यस्तो प्रत्येक प्रयत्नले राज्यसत्ता के हो भन्ने प्रश्नस“ग सामना गर्नु पर्नेछ । पहिले त राज्यसत्ताको सामान्य अस्तित्व र चरित्रको कुरो उठ्नेछ । दोस्रो, नेपाली राज्यसत्ताको विशिष्ट स्वरूपको चिह्नारी र छिनोफानोको सवाल आउनेछ ।
राजनीतिशास्त्रको सामान्य चिह्नारी भएको व्यक्तिले पनि राज्यको परिभाषाबारे आफ्नो स्कुले पढाइमा समेत केही न केही बुझेको-सुनेको हुन्छ । बुद्धि छिप्पि“दै जा“दा हामी आफ्नो जीवनमा राज्यलाई भोग्छौं । लोकसेवा, पुलिस-प्रशासन, अड्डा-अदालत, मालपोत, सेना, झ्यालखाना आदि राज्यका अंग-उपांगस“ग जीवनको कुनै न कुनै चरणमा हाम्रो भेट भइरहन्छ । तर हामी यस्तो भेटलाई गम्भीरतापर्ूवक लि“दैनौं । त्यो भेटभन्दा पनि पढेका-सुनेका कुरा हाम्रालागि ज्यादा महत्त्वपर्ूण्ा हुन्छन् । त्यस दृष्टिले हर्ेदा सरकार र राज्यले शान्ति, व्यवस्था निसाफ दिन्छन् भन्ने कुरा नै हाम्रो सोच-विचार र संस्कारको प्रमुख तत्त्व भएको भेटिन्छ । नेपालमा कुनै समय गोरखामा निसाफ पाउने कुरा प्रचलित थियो । सबै थरीका सामन्तवादमा राजा सबैका साझा भन्ने उक्तिले प्रचार पाएको थियो । यस्ता मान्यता र उक्तिले हिजोसम्मको नेपालको आमजनताको राज्यसम्बन्धी धारणा बताउ“छन् । तर आज यो स्थिति छैन । यो फेल भइसकेको छ । उल्टिसकेको छ ।
शास्त्रीय दृष्टिले राज्य देशको सिंगो जनसंख्याको साझा हक लाग्ने संस्था भएको कुरा कतिपय विचारकले अगाडि सारेको भेटिन्छ । खास गरेर उदारवादी परम्पराले उनीहरूले व्याख्या गरेका राज्यलाई वर्ग, जाति र समूहभन्दा माथिको सर्वोच्च संस्था बताउन धेरै कोसिस गरेको भेटिन्छ । हेगेलले त अझ राज्यको एक अधिभूतवादी -मेटाफिजिकल) सिद्धान्त प्रस्तुत गरेका छन् । अन्ततः राज्यबाट सबैको भलोमात्र हुन्छ भन्ने उनको सोच हो । त्यसैले व्यक्तिगत हित, स्वार्थ, चाहनासमेत राज्यको निम्ति बलिदान गर्नुपर्छ भन्ने राज्यको अधिभूतवादी सिद्धान्तको आग्रह छ । अराजकतावादीले भने राज्यलाई स्वतन्त्रताको शत्रुका रूपमा लिएको छ । मार्क्सले अधिभूतवादी एवं अराजकतावादी सिद्धान्तको अतिवादका बीचबाट हि“ड्ने कोसिस गरेका थिए । अहिले नेपालमा व्रि्रोही र अराजक कहलिएका माओवादीहरू आफ्नो राज्य विषयक धारणामा मार्क्स र माओबाट विशेष रूपमा प्रभावित छन् । उनीहरूले सुरु गरेको गृहयुद्धका कारणले नै नेपालमा अहिले राज्यको पुनःसंरचनाको माग बलियो भएको छ । मधेस जनजाति, दलित, महिलाहरूको असन्तोषले राज्यको पुनःसंरचनाको मागमा नया“ आयाम थपिएको छ ।
मार्क्सले राज्यसत्ता आमजनताको साझा संस्था मान्दैनन् । यो संस्था वर्ग-संर्घष्ाको परिणाम हो भन्ने उनको ठहर छ । रोगको यस निक्र्योलमा मार्क्स र एंगेल्स दुवै नै स्पष्ट छन् । यो पुरानो राज्य ध्वस्त गरिनर्ुपर्छ । यो पुरानो राज्यलाई जितेर वा कब्जा गरेर पुग्दैन । पुरानो वर्ग-संरचनाको सेवा गर्न त्यो पुरानो राज्य बनेको थियो । त्यसैले नया“ वर्गलाई अर्कै राज्य चाहिन्छ । पेरिस कम्युनले त्यस नया“ किसिमको राज्यको रूपरेखा कोरेको छ भन्ने मार्क्सको एक समयको दृष्टिकोण थियो । तर फेरि उनको जीवनकालमा हर्ेदाहर्ेर्दै बालिग मताधिकार र नागरिक स्वतन्त्रताको विशाल विस्तार भएको थियो । मार्क्स जनतन्त्रको त्यस्तो विकासबाट पनि प्रभावित भएको देखिन्छन् । पmेडरिक एंगेल्स त निश्चय ज्यादै प्रभावित थिए । "जनतान्त्रिक अधिकार" को विस्तार भएको देशमा राज्यको चरित्र सुस्तरी परिवर्तित हुनसक्ने सम्भावनातर्फएंगेल्सका अन्तिम लेखहरूमा प्रस्ट संकेत छ । कार्ल काउत्स्की र एर्डवर्ड वर्नस्टिन यस तर्कका प्रबल र्समर्थक भए । त लेनिन यस तर्कस“ग सहमत हुन सकेनन् । लेनिनले पेरिस कम्युनबाट नै प्रेरणा लिए । उनले "राज्यसत्ता र क्रान्ति" मा नया“ किसिमको राज्यको वकालत गरेका छन् । सोभियत रूसमा यस्तै राज्य बनाउने उनको प्रयत्न थियो । तर त्यहा“ त्यस्तो राज्य बन्न सकेन । पछि माओत्सेतुङको नेतृत्वमा चीनमा सांस्कृतिक क्रान्ति भयो । त्यस क्रान्तिले स्पष्ट रूपमा "पेरिस कम्युन" तथा "राज्यसत्ता र क्रान्ति" बाट प्रेरणा लिएको थियो । सांस्कृतिक क्रान्तिले पनि त्यस्तो जनमुखी राज्य बनाउन सकेन । तर आशा अमर छ । मनुष्यले हिम्मत हार्दैन । र्सवथा नया“ एवं जनमुखी राज्यको खोजी जारी छ । नेपालमा चलेको आजको यो बहस यसैले बडो महत्त्वपर्ूण्ा छ ।
माथिका सारा कुरा इतिहासका कुरा हुन् । तर इतिहास बिर्सिन हुने कुरा होइन । इतिहास राजनीतिको एकमात्र प्रयोगशाला हो । मार्क्स, लेनिन र माओको अनुभवको आलोकमा हाम्रो निकट भविष्य केलाउ“दा नया“ अन्तदर्ृष्टि प्राप्त हुनमा अवश्य सहयोग हुनेछ । तर स“गस“गै विचारधारा र ऐतिहासिक अनुभवका अन्य धारापट्टबिाट पनि उदासीन रहन सकि“दैन ।
सोभियत युनियनको गठन र विघटन बीसौं शताब्दीको निश्चय र्सवाधिक महत्त्वपर्ूण्ा घटना थियो । सोभियत युनियनको गठनको उत्साहले संसारमा पु“जीवादी प्रजातन्त्रको औचित्य र अनिवार्यतामा ठूलो प्रश्नचिह्न लगाएको थियो । यसको विघटनले ठीक उल्टो प्रभाव, त्यो पनि यान्त्रिक रूपमा छाडेको छ । दुनिया“मा अब राजनीतिक प्रणालीको बहस टुंगियो । प्रजातन्त्र, अझ त्यसमा पनि बेलायत र अमेरिकामा उत्पन्न एवं विकसित प्रजातन्त्रको मोडेल नै संसारको र्सवमान्य 'नमुना' हो भन्ने आजको विश्वको वातावरण छ । तर नेपालमा भने हाम्रो आ“खाका सामु लगभग ठीक यस्तै यही मोडेल भर्खरै धराशायी भएको छ । यो के भएको हो - यस सवालस“ग साक्षात्कार गरेर मात्र नेपाललाई चाहिने नया“ किसिमको राजनीतिक संरचना बारेको बहस र्सार्थक हुनसक्छ । त्यसैले कथित बहसको र्सवाधिक महत्त्वपर्ूण्ा प्रश्न यो हो- ०४७ सालको संविधान र राजनीतिक प्रणाली किन ध्वंस भयो - हामीस“ग भएको वाद, विचारधारा वा विज्ञानले यस प्रश्नको उत्तर के दिन्छ - त्यो उत्तर कुन हदसम्म सही छ - यस उत्तरको सत्यार्थमा त्यस वाद वा विचारधाराको नवीन तर्जुमाको विश्वसनीयतामा भर पर्न सकिन्छ । प्रचलित कुनै वाद, विचारधारा वा राजनीतिक विद्वानका वैज्ञानिकहरू समेतले ४-५ वर्षअघिमात्र आजको यस परिस्थितिको कल्पना गरेका थिएनन् । हिजो अधिकांश नेताहरू आफ्नै किसिमको सत्ता संर्घष्ामा संलग्न थिए । राजाबाट हुनसक्ने प्रहार कसैलाई अनुमान थिएन । यसैले यिनै नेता र चिन्तकका भरमा मात्र भोलिको नया“ राजनीतिक व्यवस्थाको गठन वा परिकल्पनामात्र पनि हुन गाह्रो छ । हिजोको नेपालका राजनीतिक पात्रहरूमध्ये पठितहरू खासगरी कुनै न कुनै मार्क्सवादी शास्त्रको बन्धनमा भेटिन्छन् । अरू स्वतन्त्र बजार, उपभोक्तावाद र निजीकरणका उपासक छन् । आज पनि यो स्थिति
कायम छ ।
आजको मितिमा ०४७ सालको संविधान र राजनीतिक प्रणालीको पुनरावलोकन गर्दा धेरै प्रश्न स्वाभाविक रूपमा उठ्नेछ । राजा ज्ञानेन्द्रले यस संविधानको हत्या गरे, यो एक तथ्य हो । प्रश्न छ- यस्तो सहज हत्या कसरी सम्भव
भयो - राजाले सेनाको एकाग्र र्समर्थनले यो हत्या गर्ने गरे भन्नु एउटा प्रचलित प्रवाद छ । तर प्रवाद पर्ूण्ा सत्य होइन । प्रत्येक राष्ट्रिय-राज्यस“ग सेना हुन्छ । तर त्यहा“का राज्य-प्रमुखले खोज्दैमा सेनाको प्रयोग हु“दैन । सेनाको बफादारी र सक्रियतासमेत संविधानको कुनै धारा विशेषबाट नियन्त्रित हु“दैन । आखिर कुनै सेना पनि समाज र राजनीतिस“ग असम्पृक्त रहेको संस्था हु“दैन । यसैले ०४७ को संविधानको हत्याको शवपरीक्षण अपेक्षाकृत गम्भीर रूपमा हुनु जरुरी छ । संविधानको यस्तो शवपरीक्षाको अर्थ त्यस दस्तावेज विशेषको धारा-उपधारा वा प्रस्तावना मात्रको समीक्षा होइन । बाझ्दै नबाझ्ने धारा नभएका संविधानले लेख्नै सकि“दैन । अहिलेसम्म कहीं लेखिएको छैन । ठीक त्यस्तै लेखिएका धारा सदैव ठोस, स्पष्ट र एउटै अर्थमात्र भएका पनि हुन सक्तैन । भाषाको गतिशील चरित्रले गर्दा पनि यो सम्भव छैन । यसैले संवैधानिक प्रणालीमा विश्वास भएको प्रत्येक राज्यले संविधानको व्याख्यानिम्ति एउटा बेग्लै निकाय खडा गर्छ । साधारणतः कुनै न्यायालय त्यो निकाय हुन्छ । संविधानवादमा विश्वास भएका राष्ट्रमा सर्वोच्च न्यायालय र कार्यपालिकाको अधिकारको स्पष्ट सीमांकन भएको हुन्छ । संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिका यस सीमांकनको एक उदाहरण हो । तर आज पनि नेपालको संविधानको व्याख्या सजिलो भएको अवस्था छैन । एउटै व्यक्ति सरकार-प्रमुख र राष्ट्र-प्रमुख हुनुहुन्छ । मुलुकमा यस समय एक विधायिका छ । सिद्धान्ततः त्यो विधायिका वा संसद संसारको र्सवाधिक शक्तिशाली निकाय भएको छ । व्यवहार ठीक उल्टो छ । तानाशाही व्यवस्थामा खडा गरिने व्यवस्थापिकाको प्रतिरूप बनेको छ, यो संसद । बहुप्रचारित अष्ट-प्रधान कतै सल्लाह गर्छन् । श्री ३ महाराजझैं उनीले खड्ग निसाना लगाउ“छन् । संसद निरीह भावले लालमोहर लगाउ“छ । यो निश्चय नै शुभ वा सकारात्मक परम्परा होइन ।
यथार्थ कुरो यो हो । मुलकमा यो अवस्था आउनमा हिजोको संविधानको धाराको मात्र जिम्मेदारी थिएन । नेपाली जनताले यो कुरो बुझनु आवश्यक छ । खासमा ००७ साल लगायतका संविधानसमेत आफ्ना अन्तरनिहित विसंगतिले नष्ट भएको होइन । मुलुकमा एउटा खास खालको वस्तुस्थिति छ । संविधानले त गणतन्त्रसमेतको ठाउ“ दिएको छ । तर मुलुकको भौतिक-राजनीतिक वस्तुस्थिति र सर्वोपरी हाम्रो नेतृत्व लोकतान्त्रिक हुनसकेको छैन । मुख्यतः यसैकारणले राजनीतिको आजको विकासक्रममा द्वन्द्व हुनासाथ संविधान च्यातिएका छन् ।
आजको मितिमा ठोस रूपमा भन्दा मुलुकको राजनीतिक वस्तुस्थितिमा तीन द्रष्टव्य विशेषता छन् ।
-क) राष्ट्रिय-राज्यको रूपमा संगठित भएका दिनदेखि नेपाल एक काठमाडौं-केन्द्रित राज्य भएको छ । ०४७ सालको संविधानले यस वस्तुस्थितिलाई भत्काएन । आज पनि भत्किएको छैन । यसतर्फअविलम्ब काम हुनर्ुपर्छ ।
-ख) एक वा दर्ुइ जाति-विशेषले राज्यको नेतृत्वउपर एकलौटी कब्जा गरेको छ । उक्त जाति-विशेषको कब्जालाई राज्यले र राज्यलाई यस जातीय प्रभुत्वले परस्पर संरक्षित गरेको छ । सेना, दल, पुलिस, प्रशासन, अदालत, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्यमा समेत यस जातीयको प्रभुत्व र दबाब यथावत छ ।
-ग) यसै जातीय प्रभुत्वको कारण दलहरू पनि जनतान्त्रिक हुन सकेनन् । यस जातीय-प्रभुत्व र सामन्तवादको अपवित्र गठबन्धन छ । यस गठबन्धनका शक्तिका आधारमा सामन्त र पुनरुत्थानवादी बारम्बार संविधान स्वेच्छाले लेख्छन्, दिन्छन्, च्यात्छन्, मिल्काउ“छ । फेरि लेख्छन् ।
उक्त तीन कुरा मुख्य छन् । अरू तपसिलमा धेरै कुरा आउन सक्छन् । नागरिक अधिकार, कानुनको शासनदेखि निजी सम्पत्तिको पवित्रताको --) कुरासमेत उठ्ने नै छन् । तर अहिले धेरै कुरा उठाउ“दा गति र गन्तव्य अल्मलिन सक्छ । तपसिलका कुरामा गई उक्त तीन रोग ध्यानमा राखेर अगाडि लम्कनु आजको प्रमुख कार्यभार हो । त्यस कार्यभारको सम्पादननिम्ति गरिनुपर्ने कार्यसूची सजिलै कोर्न सकिन्छ । त्यो यस्तो हुनसक्छ ।
काठमाडौं केन्द्रित राज्यसत्ताको अन्त्य हुनर्ुपर्छ । त्यसको ठाउ“मा संघीय राज्य हुनर्ुपर्छ ।
राज्य उपरको जाति विशेषाधिकारको अन्त्य हुनर्ुपर्छ । यसनिम्ति विशेष अवसरको सिद्धान्त अर्न्तर्गत 'आरक्षण' र सकारात्मक भर्ति र सहवरण हुनर्ुपर्छ ।
राजाका रूपमा ज्ञानेन्द्रको उपस्थितिमात्रले गणतन्त्रवादी र आमजनतालाई कमजोर बनाएको छ । गणतन्त्रको घोषणामा ढिलाइ गर्नै हु“दैन ।
संसद गणतन्त्रको घोषणा गर्न र्सवथा सक्षम छ । कदाचित् त्यसमा सहमति नभए जनमत सङ्ग्रह सुन्दर विकल्प हो ।
राजनीतिक दलहरूले संघीय ढा“चामा आ-आफ्नो संगठनलाई तत्काल ढालिहाल्नर्ुपर्छ ।
कुनै पनि संविधानको धाराले मात्र संविधानको रक्षा हुन सक्दैन । उक्त कार्यसूची नै ०६३ को संविधानको दर्ीघायुको एकमात्र पर्ूवर्सत हो । तर पर्ूवर्सतमात्र हो, पर्याप्त त त्यही पनि होइन ।

सोर्स: कांतिपुर
Posted on: 2007-04-25 21:35:53

"Why are we ready to drive three miles to pick up 250 gm of jalebi?"

The latest report on global warming issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Brussels has set the alarm bells ringing. Among the report’s dire predictions: 30 percent of the species will be wiped out if there is a 2° C rise in temperature, up to 3.2 billion people will face water shortages, and large-scale melting of Himalayan glaciers will wreak havoc in the Gangetic Plains.

Dr RK Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC, spoke to Himanshu Bhagat on the subject.

The IPCC report was a joint effort by 2,500 scientists from 130 countries. That sounds a little unwieldy. No, it’s not unwieldy at all because it is very well organised. The core team that actually worked on the report consisted of little over 500 people. They have clearly defined chapters in each group and maybe five or six people were working on a chapter.

How was the study organised?

It is organised to draw in the best expertise. If you are talking about the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems, there is no one guy who knows everything. You have got to draw in people who have an understanding and knowledge of, say, the Arctic marine environment or the Equatorial system.

Climate change happens over thousands of years and involves far too many variables. Can we even go beyond informed guesswork?

There is no informed guesswork here. These are scientists who have spent their whole lives studying the subject. If they’ve been guessing for the last 30 years and publishing definitive papers on the subject, then I am afraid there is no field of knowledge where you go anywhere beyond guesswork.

But many question the idea of climate change induced by human activity?

They are bound to. Look, in any such endeavour there are vested interests. You have to look at the weight of the evidence. Look at the amount of consensus that has developed in the scientific community today. There is a very small segment of so-called sceptics. And I don’t want to question their motives.

Is the IPCC report projecting a worst-case scenario and exaggerating the perils of global warming? Saying, for instance, that floodwaters could claim seven million victims in Tokyo and New York by 2080?

Seven million is peanuts. Look at the major deltas in Asia, which we have identified as highly vulnerable. Look at Kolkata, at even Mumbai or the entire Mekong delta. These are areas where the rise in sea level can wreak havoc. We had the tsunami two years ago. If the sea level was even a foot higher than it is now, can you imagine the havoc it would have caused?

Same intensity but greater impact.
But, to answer your question, we are not developing a worst-case scenario. The IPCC does not do any research, nor does it do any projections itself. It looks at peer-reviewed literature and picks up what has been published in prestigious journals. On the basis of that, we come up with a balanced assessment.

So, it’s a compilation.
And an assessment. It has to be an informed assessment. At Brussels, we spent four days going through the report line-by-line, word-by-word. You have all the governments of the world lined up. Do you think they would accept anything that is exaggerated?

Were some predictions watered down because of pressure by governments?
No. Sure, some wording has to be changed, because, through this process of debate and discussions, what you get actually is a much better worded document. What you get is something that the governments have bought. So no government can say later, “Look, I don’t support this report.”

So there is an element of compromise.
It is what I would call “informed compromise”, because it is not arbitrary.

It seems to be less scepticism now that global warming poses a threat. Why? Better scientific data? Or, have all the calamities scared people?
It’s not merely science but observation. The scientific observations we have are so compelling that public opinion has turned in a big way.

India and China are emerging as big potential greenhouse gas emitters. Are the rich nations using this to make us pay for damage they have done?
This is a contentious issue. Fact is, the developed countries are responsible for the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere, which has taken place cumulatively over the last 150 years. Even today, if you look at per capita emissions, China and India are nowhere near the developed countries. As the framework convention says, there has to be “common but differentiated responsibility.”

By differentiated you mean…
That the developed countries have to assume a larger responsibility. But at the same time, I think it is a common responsibility and to the extent we can, without hurting our own economy, we should try to do whatever little is possible.

Can we lift 300 million Indians out of poverty without contributing to global warming?
If you look at the developed countries, there is no single unique model of development. In France, for instance, the emission of greenhouse gas per capita is substantially lower than North America. One reason is that they have much better public transport. They also use nuclear power on a large scale.
Look at the emphasis we have placed on private automobiles. It’s going to pose all kinds of problems. In India, there are huge opportunities for what can be called “no regrets measures”, whether it is energy efficiency or shifting to renewable energy sources. Delhi, for instance, has brilliant sunshine all year-round, but we use electricity for heating our water. If we had the right mix of policies, we would have solar water-heaters in every house.

The government is undertaking huge infrastructure projects, building dams, exploring for oil and natural gas. All this will contribute to greater greenhouse gas emissions.
There is no getting away from the fact that to develop and get rid of poverty we have to have economic growth. But at least in those areas where we can bring about a shift without compromising on economic growth, we should do something.

What is the government doing to address these concerns?
Not too much, I’m afraid. They better get going because, as it is, we have a severe problem when it comes to adapting to climate change.

You mean disaster management.
Not just disaster management, but anticipatory measures. For instance, we are faced with water scarcity. We are going to have problems affecting agriculture. We will have to come up with crops that are more drought-resistant and more salinity-tolerant. All this has to be clearly understood and articulated, before we can start adapting. We don’t have that in place.

Another instance of our political leadership’s failure?
I would say it is a failure of the Indian public. Leaders will do what the public wants them to do. The public has to be educated.

What about the corporate sector?
The private sector will only respond to signals they see in the market. Therefore, you really need incentives, you need disincentives, and you probably need taxes. And more than anything else, you have to have a policy regime, which requires regulatory measures.

Many companies in the West are proactively trying to minimise greenhouse gas emissions.
More and more, but it’s still a very small proportion. They see the writing on the wall. They know that low-carbon technologies are the future. That is what I mean. It requires policies so that they find it of value to take some of these measures.

You have to have the laws, which force them.
Laws or physical measures. A year and a half ago, Mr Chidambaram announced that larger cars would be taxed at higher rate. I immediately wrote to him saying, “Please don’t do that. Do it on the basis of energy efficiency.” He was good enough to immediately say “Please prepare a scheme for us”. Which we did. Some of that has been implemented.

Are you satisfied with the Finance Minister’s response?
Well, there is a lot more to be done.

What can middle-class and rich Indians do as citizens and as consumers?
I feel very concerned at the distortion of values among the rich and the upper class. We talk about corporate social responsibility but far more important is crorepati social responsibility. That’s a term I have coined. In the US or Europe many people at the top have a certain set of values. But in this country, the rich, who are getting richer, are so disconnected.

And the middle class?
All of us. I don’t exclude anybody.

Consumption drives the economy. Should people consume less to save the environment?
I wouldn’t say that. But I would say consume those products that don’t leave a major footprint on the ecology of the planet. You have choices. I wrote in an article that people are quite willing to drive three miles to pick up 250 grams of jalebi. Changes will be required, but that doesn’t mean that you start living in caves and move around in sackcloth.

Apr 28 , 2007
Source: Tehelka